A third fewer contracts will be signed this Christmas than last year: 152,274 fewer contracts between November and January
Randstad, number 1 in human resources in Spain and globally, has released its recruitment forecast for this year’s Christmas campaign. To carry out his analysis, he took into account the most dynamic sectors at this time of the year: commerce, logistics and hotels.
Randstad predicts that hires during the Christmas campaign will suffer from the impact of the pandemic and will decline by 34.5% from last year. More specifically, Randstad forecasts indicate 289,280 new hires in the transport and logistics, hospitality and commerce sectors during the months of November, December and January. During the campaign this year, 152,274 contracts will cease to be signed, against 441,554 recorded in 2019.
Contracts generated during the Christmas season and variation from year to year
The decline recorded this year breaks with the growth trend of seven consecutive years. However, the drop in hiring is not the strongest in the historical series, the highest being that recorded in the 2008-09 season (-35.9%), coinciding with the financial crisis. Regarding the volume of planned contracts, the figure for the current campaign will be similar to the level recorded at Christmas 2015-2016.
Unfortunately, the current situation will also leave its mark on the Christmas campaign. But although less, employment will continue to be generated, as consumption increases despite the circumstances. The sector that has established itself as a lifeline for jobs, and which will be relevant in the coming months, will be logistics, thanks in large part to e-commerce. On the other side of the coin is the hospitality industry, which is particularly affected by uncertainty and restrictions, ”said Valentn Bote, director of Randstad Research.
Hiring falls in all communities, but with big differences
The Randstad report points out that all communities across the country are seeing double-digit declines in hiring forecasts for the Christmas season compared to the previous year, although there are significant differences between them.
The Balearic Islands are the community that suffered the largest drop in hiring in the whole country, with 60.3%, followed by more moderate declines but still above 40%, the Canaries (-48.7% ) and Extremadura (- 43.9%).
Contracts by community and variation.
With decreases still above the national average (-34.5%), there are La Rioja (-39.3%), Navarra, Castilla y Len (both with -38.5%) and Catalunya (-37 , 8%).
Already with less marked decreases than the average of the country are Asturias (-33.8%), the Region of Murcia (-33.5%), Aragn (-33%), the Valencian Community (-32.4% ), Cantabria (-31.9%), the Community of Madrid (-31.6%) and Andalusia (-30.6%). The communities with the least pronounced declines in the country, all over 30%, will be Galicia (-29.6%), Castilla-La Mancha and Euskadi (both with -27.6%).
In terms of volumes, Andalusia (with 58,630 contracts), Catalonia (42,320), the Community of Madrid (36,490) and the Valencian Community (34030), will be the communities with the highest number of contracts, all above of 30,000 signatures and that together they represent 59.3% of all those who sign this Christmas across the country.
At the provincial level, Randstad underlines that the biggest drops in hiring will take place in Santa Cruz de Tenerife (50.2%), Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (-47.5%) and Salamanca (-45.1%), while The most moderate decreases will occur in Cadiz (-7.9%), Guadalajara (-15.7%) and Pontevedra (-23.2%).
In terms of volumes, the most significant will be recorded in the provinces of Barcelona (30,170 contracts), Valencia (21,080), Cdiz (16,120) and Seville (10,930).
Transport, hospitality and commerce: the driving force behind recruitment
This report establishes that the sectors that stimulate job creation during the Christmas season are commerce, hotels and logistics, fundamental economic engines of our country.
As Randstad points out, the transport and logistics sector will generate the most jobs, with around 128,400 contracts, of which 44.4% will be signed during this period. In fact, this sector will be the one that will have decreased the least compared to the year, that is to say a decrease of 17.7%.
The commerce sector is next in terms of volume of hiring, with around 92,600 companies, 32% of the total, and a decrease compared to last year a little more marked than logistics, 26.1%.
For its part, the hotel industry will suffer the largest drop in hiring for this Christmas period, ie no less than 57.4%, the volume of around 68,300 contracts, 23.6% of the total.
According to the figures, the logistics sector will be the main protagonist of this Christmas campaign. The rise of electronic commerce, a trend consolidated during the confinement period, will be one of the reasons why contractualization does not sink further during this period. In addition to traditional Christmas shopping, there are promotional dates such as Black Frida and Cyber Monday, which are already consolidated milestones for the industry and involve manpower requirements.
Faced with this situation, companies will require positions of packers, housings, storekeepers and transporters, in addition to professionals dedicated to customer service, both for online and telephone service. Among the most valued skills and abilities, this campaign highlights the field of technological tools related to the sector.
Despite the decline in hiring, professionals will continue to be required for the commerce sector, such as clerks, promoters, hostesses and commercial profiles, mainly, among which the close relationship with the client and their communication skills are valued. For his part, and depending on the circumstances, the hotelier looks for profiles such as cooks, kitchen assistants and waiters; and support staff in hotels, maids or reception staff. In any case, in this rapidly changing situation, recruiters in many positions will value previous experience for rapid adaptation.