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“Advance of vaccination gives labor market a break in June”

Unemployment data, according to Randstad: “The advance of vaccination gives a break to the labor market in June”

June is a seasonal month conducive to the observation of good maintenance of employment records, which is why significant increases in membership and a drop in unemployment were a priori expected. And the published data confirmed the expectations. Membership saw the largest increase this month in the all-time series. In addition, it increases significantly in seasonally adjusted terms. ERTEs were reduced by 94,000 people during the month, although they still affect 448,000 people. Registered unemployment, for its part, fell the most that month of the entire historical series in June. Finally, hiring increased sharply from one year to the next.

Social security affiliation in June rose to 233,056 people, an increase of 1.21%, the largest increase recorded that month in the entire historical series. It should also be taken into account that the people affected by ERTE, who are included in the total number of affiliates, decreased by 94,000 during the month of June, to 448,000 people. The seasonally adjusted affiliate series reflects an increase in membership in June and the year-over-year change is accelerating at 4.70%. The total number of affiliates is 19.50 million people.

Hires increased 16.36% from May, with a total of 1.80 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the increase in hiring occurred both in temporary workers (+ 16.99%) and permanent contracts (+ 10.71%). On a year-over-year basis, permanent hires increased by 51.12% while temporary contracts increased by 55.49% compared to the figures of June 2020.

Registered unemployment fell in June by 166,911 people (-4.41%), the largest drop in June in the entire historical series. In seasonally adjusted terms, the data is positive as it reflects a drop in unemployment recorded in June. The total number of registered unemployed is 3.61 million people.

In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment fell by 103,000 people in June and membership increased by 203,000

Registered unemployment fell, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 102,604 people during the month of June, reflecting a genuinely positive behavior over this period.

The seasonally adjusted Social Security affiliation series reflects an increase of 202,857 people in June compared to May, equivalent to a 1.06% increase, reinforcing the positive behavior that was also measured in May.

In annual terms, the number of seasonally adjusted members increased by 4.70%, compared to June 2021 with June 2020, one of the worst months of the crisis. The mentioned annual growth represents an improvement of almost 9 tenths compared to the figures for May.

Artistic activities and hotels, the sectors most affected by the crisis

Social security affiliation increased in all autonomous communities in June, with the sole exception of La Rioja (-138). The most significant increases were measured in the Balearic Islands (+67,014) and Catalonia (+49,977). Registered unemployment has fallen in all the Autonomous Communities. The largest drop was measured in Andalusia (-58,281) and Catalonia (-35,955). In terms of percentage, the largest decrease in unemployment was measured in the Balearic Islands (-16.72%).

By sector, membership in June increased significantly in the hospitality sector (+130 377), which is by far the sector in which employment increased the most. Employment in trade (+42,210) and auxiliary services (+30,119) also increased significantly. If we compare it to employment just before the start of the crisis (February 2020), the sectors that lost the most jobs were artistic activities (-29,159) and hotels (-23,652) and those in which it increased the most were health (+107,716), Public Sector (excluding Health and Education) (+62,228) and Construction (+47,396).

Annual hiring growth exceeds 55.06%, compared to June 2020, one of the worst months of the crisis

Hiring increased compared to May. The increase of 16.36% can be explained by both temporary contracts and permanent contracts. In total, 1.80 million contracts were signed in June, while in June 2020, only 1.20 million contracts were signed.

Regarding permanent contracts, 172,866 contracts were signed in June, which represents 16,718 more than in June (+ 10.71%), while fixed-term contracts, with 1.63 million contracts in June, were recorded a monthly increase of 236,021 contracts (+ 16.99%), at the level – for a month of June – of 2015.

On a year-over-year basis, hires increased significantly, compared to June 2020, which was one of the months most affected by the crisis, and reflects an increase of 55.06%, with growth both in the indeterminate (+ 51.12%) and temporary (+ 55.49%).

Randstad Research analysis: ERTE workers accumulate 4 months of decreases and they are already half of what they were in February

One of the new variables to take into account in this crisis is the number of workers at ERTE, which in the worst months of the crisis (April and May 2020) exceeded 3 million people, with a maximum of 3.62 million April 24. Last year. For the moment, the figure is very far from these maximums since it stands at 447,820 at the end of June.

The dynamics of ERTE reflect different behaviors throughout the past year and a half. After the mentioned highs, there was a sharp drop until October 2020, when the figure fell to 599,000 people. But from there it rebounded and remained stable between November 2020 and January this year in the 750,000 affected areas. After another recovery in February (899,000), there have been four consecutive months of uninterrupted declines, which is indicative of a gradual recovery and a return to activity of affected workers.

Nevertheless, the sectoral composition is worrying, since a very high proportion of ERTE workers are concentrated in activities related to the hotel industry: 78,789 in accommodation services and 114,174 in catering services, a total of of 192,963, which represents 43.09% of the total affected. It is one of the sectors most affected by the crisis and which largely depends on the results of the vaccination campaign, the advance of new strains of the virus and the influx of tourists in this summer campaign which begins in these weeks.

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