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“An unemployment rate close to 16.8% can be expected in the first quarter of 2021”

The number of unemployed could reach 3.87 million according to Adecco forecasts

Adecco values ​​EPA data: “An unemployment rate close to 16.8% can be expected in the first quarter of 2021”

The data of the last labor force survey, corresponding to the fourth and last quarter of 2020, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics, have just been known. In the fourth quarter of the year, 19.34 million people were employed. There are 622,600 fewer employees than a year ago (-3.1%). This means having again reduced the drop in employment over one year, which was 1.2 million in the second quarter (-6%) and 697,400 in the third (-3.5%). 2020 ends with data that in the second half of the year, 55% of the jobs lost in the first half were recovered.

For Javier Blasco, director of the Adecco Group Institute: “The latest EPA shows the poor results expected from the outbreaks and the return to isolation. The results for the next quarter cannot be left to chance vaccinations or aid from the European Union. The reforms that this situation demands of us coincide with the messages of all organizations: these reforms which strengthen the competitiveness of our economy and ensure job creation are more necessary than ever ”.

“To do this, continue to advance in the digitization process, create a flexible labor market which, thanks to public-private collaboration, maximizes the employed population and strengthen active employment policies which allow the requalification of the population active ingredients are the basic ingredients of this diagnosis, ”Blasco says.

“The moment is of maximum uncertainty, due to the confluence of several elements: the sharp increase in the number of people infected with COVID after the Christmas holidays, the consequent resumption of multiple restrictions on economic activity, a vaccination process slower than expected. and the rapidly worsening economic outlook, not only in Spain, but also in major trading partners, such as the UK and France, among others, ”says Blasco.

Thus, for the director of the Adecco Group Institute: “in the precariousness with which, in this context, economic projections can be attempted, in the first quarter of 2021 the number of employees would be 19.2 million (480,100 people less one year before; -2.4% over one year). The number of unemployed would amount to 3.87 million (556,500 more than a year earlier; + 16.8%). The unemployment rate is expected to stand at 16.8%, 2.4 points higher than in the same quarter of 2020, which would be the highest record since June 2017 ”.

Strong points

As the National Institute of Statistics has just made public, the number of registered unemployed stood at 3,719,800 at the end of December, practically the same as in the previous quarter, which was the highest since March 2018 (increase of 527,900 people year-on-year). ; + 16.5%). This is the largest percentage increase in unemployment since September 2012.

The rise in unemployment was concentrated among those under 40 and was higher among women than among men. Unemployment increased in all autonomous regions except Extremadura (-10.4%), Galicia (-2.2%) and the region of Murcia (-4.7%). The largest increase corresponds to the Balearic Islands (+ 75.3% over one year).

The unemployment rate was 16.1%, 2 tenths lower than in the third quarter, but 2.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. By autonomy, the highest rates correspond to the Canary Islands (25.2%) and Andalusia (22.7%), while the lowest are those of La Rioja (10.4%) and the Basque Country (10%).

On a year-over-year basis, the decline in employment became widespread: it fell for both sexes, both for Spaniards and for immigrants. The number of people employed has also fallen in the four main economic sectors: industry, services, agriculture and livestock and construction. Disaggregating the information, we see that in the hotel industry, employment decreased by 23.3%, while employment increased in five branches: health and social services, finance and insurance, activities professional, public administration and education.

The reduction in employment, again in inter-annual terms, affected both the self-employed and the employees, although to a much greater extent the temporary (-9%) than the permanent (-1.7%).

Two groups saw their employment increase: one is that of people aged 60 and over (+ 8.5%); the other, that of higher education graduates (+ 0.4%).

If you want more information, we leave you the webinar with the presentation of this data and possible scenarios for the next EPA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SZP6wd2CPE

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