Atypical EPA measures biggest increases in employment and unemployment in third quarter, according to Randstad

Randstad Research Analysis: Almost 2 Million People Teleworked in Q3

Atypical EPA measures biggest increases in employment and unemployment in third quarter, according to Randstad

The Labor Force Survey (LFS) for the third quarter of 2020 reflects a partial recovery in the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Spanish labor market. There was a significant increase in employment in the third quarter, and unemployment also increased remarkably. The workforce has seen an unprecedented quarterly increase of nearly 925, in part due to methodological factors. Employment increased by nearly 570,000 people in the third quarter, the best third quarter in the historical series – although it should not be forgotten that it was preceded by the worst second quarter in history. The number of employees again exceeded 19 million, reaching 19.18 million. Unemployment increased by 355,000 people to 3.72 million, while the inactive population fell by 893,000 people. The unemployment rate increases by nine tenths to 16.26%.

The third quarter employment behavior combines the positive seasonal effect and the “rebound” effect after the worst quarter in LFS history, which was the second quarter of 2020. The number of people employed was 19, 18 million people, after measuring a quarterly increase of 569,600 people employed. In inter-annual terms, the loss of employment has moderated, even if it still reflects a drop of 3.51% (-697,500 employees).

Regarding the development of the activity, the increase of 924,600 assets partially offset the decrease of 1.02 million assets in the second quarter. The participation rate recovered 2.29 percentage points and rose to 57.83%. In inter-annual terms, the working population decreases by 0.82%.

Jobs recovers 19 million in best third quarter in all-time series

The increase in employment in the third quarter (+569,700 employees) occurred entirely among employees (+581,200 employees, + 3.74%), while the self-employed fell by 10,400 people (-0.34%). Among the self-employed, the number of employers increased on a quarterly basis (+25,200, + 2.90%), while the number of self-employed without dependent workers decreased. In inter-annual terms, the number of employers has decreased (-7.65%) and that of the rest of the self-employed has increased.

Among employees, the third quarter of the year was characterized by a much more intense progression of holders of a temporary contract (+422,900, + 12.18%) compared to those with a CDI (+158,300, + 1 , 31%). On a year-to-year basis, the evolution of salaried employment reflects decreases in both cases, but more pronounced in the case of temporary employees (-582,800, -13.02%) than in that of permanent employees (-99,100, -0.80%) . This annual behavior, already observed during the two previous quarters, reflects an asymmetric impact of the loss of employment between permanent and temporary following the Covid-19 crisis. The rate of temporary employment increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and stood at 24.2%, indicating that more than 3 in 4 employees in Spain have a permanent contract.

The recovery in employment in the third quarter was stronger in the public sector (+ 3.45%) than in the private sector (+ 2.98%). In inter-annual terms, while public employment continues to grow (+ 3.36%), employment in the private sector has fallen sharply, with a drop of 4.84%. Employees in the private sector represent 15.84 million people and those in the public sector 3.34 million.

Employment increased in the third quarter in all age groups without exception. The largest increase occurred in the 20-24 segment (+110,400 employees) and the largest percentage increase was also concentrated among those under 25.

By sector, in the third quarter, employment increased in all sectors except agriculture (-32,300 employees). The largest increase was measured in the service sector (+476,300), followed by construction (+80,300) and industry (+45,400). In year-to-year terms, employment declined in all sectors, with a lower intensity in the case of construction (-1.62%) and higher in industry (-4.55%), with an average each 3.51%.

The increase in employment in the third quarter occurred in 16 of the 17 Autonomous Communities (the only exceptions were the Canary Islands, with a slight drop of 2,800 people and Ceuta). The most significant increases were recorded in Catalonia (+96,400) and in Comunidad Valenciana (+81,800), although the most intense increase in terms of percentage was recorded in the Balearics (+ 12.04%) . In year-to-year terms, employment is declining in all communities except Murcia.

Unemployment rate rises to 16.26%, with seasonally adjusted unemployment growing 12%

Unemployment measured by the APE increased by 355,000 people in the third quarter of the year and the unemployment rate rose to 16.26%, which is far from reflecting the extent of the crisis in the labor market. . The INE explains that the requirements of the ILO to consider a person as unemployed are difficult to meet in a context of business closure and cessation of activity. For this reason, a significant proportion of people who have lost their jobs are still considered inactive.

Quarterly growth in unemployment occurred in all age groups without exception, with greater intensity for the youngest (under 25). In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment increased by 11.98%.

Randstad Research analysis: almost 2 million people telecommuted in the third quarter

According to the EPA for the third quarter, 10.3% of employed workers, or 1.98 million people in total, telecommuted from their homes. This was significantly lower than in the second quarter, in which 3.01 million people teleworked more than half the days. The quarterly decline is a consequence of the fact that in some sectors and regions, work activity was able to develop in a more normalized manner during the third quarter and the use of teleworking was not a solution if necessary to be able to maintain the activity.

However, the level of teleworking remained significantly higher than that measured in 2019, in which only 4.81% of employed people teleworked. Therefore, during this third quarter, the teleworking figures double compared to the pre-crisis level.

Teleworking is an employment option more widely implemented in the case of employed women (11.3% of employed women worked more than half of the days at home in the third quarter, compared to 9.5% of men), which has a sectoral explanation: in certain sectors where recourse to teleworking is more complex (Manufacturing industry, Construction), the presence of male workers is much higher, which reduces the average.

By autonomous communities, Madrid is the region where the highest proportion of salaried teleworkers work remotely, 20.1%, which is double the national average (10.3%), followed by Catalonia (13.0%) and Asturias (10.5%). These are the only three regions where the national average is exceeded. The Canary Islands, Cantabria and Ceuta are the three areas in which the implementation of telework is weakest.

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