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Ayuso would remain 6 seats away from the absolute majority in the 4M and the left bloc would not be able to govern

Publication: Wednesday, April 28, 2021 12:15

A week before the May 4 elections, the Popular Party is very close to an absolute majority in the Madrid Assembly: it would only have six seats. According to data from the laSexta barometer, the party led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso would win 63 seats and 43.4% of the vote. In other words, with the support of Vox, who would obtain 12 seats, he would be able to exceed the minimum of 69 seats to govern in the Community of Madrid.

One of the big novelties of this poll, carried out between 22 and 24 April – after the threats against Pablo Iglesias became known and after the tension with Monasterio in the Cadena Ser debate – revolves around the left bloc: PSOE, United We Can and Plus Madrid would not obtain sufficient support to govern, because between the three forces they add 61 seats.

The PSOE would lower the number of seats compared to the previous elections (it would drop from 37 seats in 2019 to 33 in these elections), and it is also losing in the vote estimates compared to the latest laSexta barometer, held last March: in In this case, the formation led by Ángel Gabilondo predicted 38 deputies in the Assembly and 26.3% of the vote, against 22.9% predicted by the current survey.

Plus Madrid, on the other hand, would be the second force on the left with 13.6% of the vote and 19 seats. At the same time, United We can win 6.8% of the vote, or 9 seats.

As other polls had predicted, Ciudadanos would only get 3.3% of the vote, so it would have no representation in the Madrid assembly. For its part, the far-right formation Vox would win 12 seats, with 8.9% of the vote. In this way, if a pact is made with the People’s Party, the two forces could comfortably reign in the region.

Ayuso, the most popular leader and Iglesias, the one with the lowest score

With regard to the candidates for the elections, the popular leader, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, obtains the best mark, close to that approved, with 4.79. They are followed by the socialist candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, who obtains a 4.30, Mónica García, of Más Madrid, with a 3.44 and Edmundo Bal (Citizens) with a 3.31.

On the contrary, at the tail are the representative of Vox, Roció Monasterio, whose rating is 2.99 and finally Pablo Iglesias, from Unidas Podemos, who scores 2.74. It is one of the polls with the most participation, with 2,400 people polled by InvyMark, half in the municipality of Madrid and the rest outside.

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