Publication: Wednesday, January 6, 2021 11:26
Up to 35 centimeters of snow will cover Madrid from tomorrow. The fact that storm “Filomena” will leave snow in the capital is confirmed by all weather models, although the extent of the snow is unclear. Estimates range from a minimal scenario, in which precipitation would reach four centimeters in thickness to 35 centimeters which could drop to the maximum.
The great snowfall in Reyes will begin tomorrow and will affect, in addition to the Community of Madrid, all of Castile-La Mancha, the interior of Murcia and the Valencian Community. It will start at dawn in the south of these areas, arriving in Madrid early in the morning. From the afternoon it would spread south of Castilla y León and Aragon.
The most likely scenario for Madrid is that it won’t be until tomorrow, January 7, that 10 centimeters of snow will fall, the heaviest snowfall since 2009, when the snow reached 15 centimeters.
This is the scenario with the greatest probability and the one with the most certainty, since in the second part of the big snowfall, between the eighth and the ninth, the patterns are less clear. The amplitude of snow that we could accumulate until Saturday in Madrid is 20 centimeters in its middle stage, with a minimum of four centimeters and a maximum of 35 centimeters, a historic measure of the latter.
Today’s average scenarios indicate historic snowfall, but it is possible that it is lighter than expected. The models are imprecise in these situations: they are programmed to predict meteorological scenarios according to the most frequent behavior of the atmosphere. A play of polar and subtropical air masses like the one we have on our doorstep is absolutely exceptional and much more difficult to predict.