ERTE workforce increase overshadows workforce growth in November, according to Randstad
The labor market records in November this year reflect relatively negative behavior, which interrupts the labor market recovery trajectory observed over the previous four months. Membership has improved its behavior compared to November in previous years, but with a rebound in workers affected by ERTEs, while unemployment behaved less well than in November in previous years. Hiring continues to show significant year-over-year reductions, which over the past month, although the declines have slowed from October.
Social Security registrations in November increased by 31,638 people, an increase of 0.17%, the best performance this month since 2006, but it masks an increase of 147,000 people affected by ERTE during the said month . The seasonally adjusted series of affiliates also reflects an increase in membership in November and the year-over-year change stands at -1.83%. The total number of affiliates exceeds the 19 million mark (19.02 million people).
Hires were down 6.55% from October, with a total of 1.45 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the drop in hiring occurred both in permanent (-15.84%) and temporary (-5.53%). Year on year, permanent hires fell 25.30% while temporary hires fell 17.01% compared to November 2019 figures, which again reflects the strong impact on hiring of the recession economic related to the covid-19 crisis.
Registered unemployment increased by 25,269 people in November (+ 0.66%), the worst November since 2012. In seasonally adjusted data, the data are also not positive, as a monthly increase in unemployment was measured after correction seasonality. The total number of registered unemployed is 3.85 million.
Hires in November fell 6.55%, although they are slowing by more than 12 points each year (-17.82%)
Hires are down slightly compared to October, which significantly improves what happened last year (in November 2019, hires were down by more than 20% compared to the previous month). The drop, of 6.55%, is explained by the two types of hiring, but with more intensity in the case of permanent contracts. A total of 1.45 million contracts were signed in November, while in November last year, 1.76 million contracts were signed.
In the case of permanent contracts, 128,189 contracts were signed in November (the lowest figure for this month since 2014), which is 24,130 less than in October (-15.84%), while temporary contracts , with 1.32 million contracts in November, recorded a monthly decline of 77,417 contracts (-5.53%).
Over one year, hires continue to fall sharply compared to the same month in 2019 (-17.82%), even if they are slowing down compared to last month. In November, the declines occurred both in CDI (-17.01% in its interannual rate) and in CDI (-25.30%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, membership increased by 107,000 people in November, although unemployment increased
Reported unemployment rose, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 1,758 people during the month of November, reflecting genuinely negative behavior during this period, breaking with the previous four months of recovery in this series.
The seasonally adjusted series of Social Security registrations in November reflects an increase of 107,505 people compared to October, or a growth of 0.57%, due to the tendency of the resumption of activity in the labor market.
In year-to-year terms, seasonally adjusted membership fell by 4 tenths, and fell 1.83%, from the low in June (-4.58%).
Hotel company loses nearly 81,000 members after terrible November
Social security affiliation fell in 10 of the 17 Autonomous Communities during the month of November. The strongest increases took place in the Valencian Community (+22,909) and Andalusia (+ 20,091), while the strongest decrease was measured in the Balearic Islands (-19,154). Registered unemployment has increased in 14 autonomous communities. The largest increase was measured in Galicia (+6 165) and the largest decrease in Pas Vasco (-6 035). By sector, the largest increases in the workforce were recorded in education (+32,546) and the largest decrease in the hotel industry (-80,991).
Randstad Research analysis: ERTE workers bounce back in November, eclipsing apparent good performance in Social Security enrollments
During the month of November, Social Security enrollments increased by 31,638 people, the best performance this month since 2006. And in seasonally adjusted terms, the increase is even higher, at 107 000 people. However, what apparently reflects very positive behavior in employment over the past month is eclipsed when one takes into account that among the number of affiliates we include ERTE workers, and these have rebounded strongly during the month of November.
Indeed, on the last day of October, the number of employees of ERTE had fallen to 599,350 affiliates. But in November, for the first time in seven months, a rebound was measured, and by the end of the month the figure rose to 746,900 people, an increase of 147,550 from those recorded at the end of October.
The increase in the number of people affected by ERTE, analyzed by sector, is not surprising, given the increasing restrictions that occurred during the month of November. The hotel sector stands out first: bars and restaurants have seen their workforce increase by 108,800 employees in ERTE, while hotels have increased them by 14,296 people. There is also an increase in retail trade (+12,093) and sports, recreation and entertainment activities (+11,995), but in both cases far from that recorded in the hotel industry.