from a month of decline to a new rise in the curve


Posted: Saturday December 19 2020 07:51

November 9 marked the first day of a month-long decline in cumulative incidence data. That day, which coincided with the maximum recorded for the entire pandemic (529.43 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), was the last on which an increase was recorded until December 11.

A month of decline that ended with an expected increase to 189.56 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The truth is, confirming the worst omens of experts, this curve has continued to rise, although less noticeable than in October.

This Wednesday, the figure of 200 cases was again exceeded. This Friday, there are already more than 210. There are seven days until Christmas and measures are being tightened again in an attempt to stop the spread of the pandemic. For Fernando Simón, the arrival of the third wave “is an option”, but what “is not an option” is to “relax the measures”.

His warning came as an example in Germany, where severe containment was imposed given his latest figures. “It is possible that in a few weeks we will be like them,” he warned.

But how did we get there? What are the reasons for this increase in staff? The first thing to note is not so much the restrictive measures as their harshness during their application. Since the entry of the new state of alert on October 25, the autonomous communities have had to adopt a curfew and impose perimeter closures that they would lift when they deem the pandemic to be within the appropriate limits.

Madrid, from one extreme to the other

Taking Madrid as an example, it went from the region with the fewest cases per 100,000 inhabitants to that of the territory of the peninsula with the highest rate of AI (262.13), with the Balearic Islands exceeding these figures (322 , 41). There the hospitality industry barely had any restrictions and they managed to have the perimeter ordered closed for days, coinciding with the bridges that have taken place in recent dates.

Now the reality is harsh. The pandemic clearly shows over the days that it is the direct contact and the large crowds that end up causing a resumption of cases. On November 28, many got their hands on their heads as they watched footage of Madrid’s collapsed center. The contagions which could have occurred then are known now, although those of the Bridge of the Constitution are not yet fully known.

Salvador Illa spoke on Friday of a “clear upward trend”, excluding, yes, “total confinement”. Simón, for his part, sees that this situation will last, at least, until mid or end of January, excluding “the cancellation of Christmas”.

In short, the territories in which there has been greater mobility have seen a greater increase in AI. Currently, the Balearic Islands, Madrid, the Valencian Community, Castile-La Mancha, the Basque Country and Melilla are the autonomous communities that are on red alert for more than 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The vaccine, “the beginning of the end”

December 27 is the date chosen by Health to begin the vaccination campaign against COVID-19. Salvador Illa explained that doses of this vaccine will be received every week, which will be free.

The first to receive the doses will be “the groups that are in the nursing homes and the front line medical staff.” Later, 17 more at-risk groups will arrive in a plan that will last until June. Therefore, although this is the “beginning of the end” as recognized by the Minister of Health, there is still a long way to go.

It’s time to go back to the beginning, to try to “celebrate” the saddest Christmases you remember with as little contact as possible. The autonomous communities seem to be betting there, on the path that tries to avoid a third wave that seems inevitable.

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