Randstad analyzes unemployment data: “Good data in July, with every unemployment record and ERTE drop”
July is a month characterized seasonally by an increase in the number of members and a decrease in registered unemployment, so that a priori a good performance of the labor market is generally expected, as has been the case. The published data confirmed the expectations. Registrations recorded the second largest increase this month since 2007. In addition, they have increased significantly in seasonally adjusted terms. ERTEs were reduced by 116,000 people during the month, although they still affect 331,000 people. Reported unemployment, meanwhile, experienced the largest drop in the entire series in July, and hiring rose sharply year-on-year.
Social Security membership in July increased by 91,451 people, an increase of 0.47%, the second largest increase recorded that month since 2007. It should also be taken into account that those affected by ERTE, which are included in the total of affiliates, decreased by 116 thousand in July, to 331 thousand people. The seasonally adjusted series of affiliates reflects a notable increase in membership in July and the year-to-year variation is decelerating, at 4.29%. The total number of affiliates is 19.59 million people.
Hires were up 2.24% from June, with a total of 1.84 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the increase in hiring occurred only in the interim (+ 2.93%), since it fell indefinitely (-4.26%). On a year-over-year basis, permanent hires increased by 17.29% while temporary hires increased by 19.91% compared to the figures for July 2020.
Registered unemployment fell in July by 197,841 people (-5.47%), the largest drop in July in the entire historical series. In seasonally adjusted terms, the data is positive as it reflects a drop in unemployment recorded in July. The total number of registered unemployed stands at 3.42 million people.
In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment fell by 192,000 people in July and membership increased by 133,000
Registered unemployment fell, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 191,756 people during the month of July, reflecting a genuinely positive behavior during this period.
The seasonally adjusted Social Security affiliation series reflects an increase of 133,049 people in July compared to June, an increase of 0.69%, reinforcing the positive behavior which was also measured in June and linked to three consecutive months with improvements in seasonality. adjusted series.
On a year-over-year basis, the number of seasonally adjusted members increased by 4.29%, compared to July 2021 with July 2020, one of the months still heavily affected by the crisis. The annual growth mentioned assumes a deceleration of four tenths compared to the figures for June.
Hospitality, Health and Commerce, the sectors with the greatest increase in employment. Education and agriculture, the biggest
Social security affiliation increased in 11 of the 17 Autonomous Communities in July. The most significant increases were measured in Catalonia (+30,540) and the Balearics (+23,023). The largest decreases were recorded in Madrid (-9,530) and the Canary Islands (-6,072). Registered unemployment fell in all the autonomous communities and in Melilla. The largest drop was measured in Andalusia (-69,159) and Catalonia (-37,548). In terms of percentage, the largest decrease was measured in the Balearic Islands (-15.80%).
By sector, membership in July, with marked seasonality, increased significantly in the Hotel sector (+72 795), which is the sector in which, by far, employment increased the most. Employment also increased significantly in Commerce (+45 728) and in Healthcare (+49 769). On the contrary, the sectors where membership fell the most during the month of July are Education (-112,346) and Agriculture (-52,280).
The annual growth in hiring, 19.67%, a little more intense in the case of temporary workers
Hiring increased compared to June. The increase, of 2.24%, can only be explained by temporary hiring: in total, 1.84 million contracts were signed in July, while in July 2020 only 1.54 million contracts have been signed.
Regarding permanent hires, 165,500 contracts were signed in July, or 7,366 fewer than in June (-4.26%), while the interim, with 1.67 million contracts in July , recorded an increase over the month of 47,569 contracts (+ 2.93%), at the level –for a month of July- of 2015.
Year-on-year, hires are growing strongly, compared to July 2020, a month still very affected by the crisis, and reflect an increase of 19.67%, with growth both in CDI (+ 17.29%) and temporary workers (+ 19.91%).
Randstad Research analysis: Hospitality, Healthcare and Commerce, the sectors that create jobs in July, as opposed to Education
The strong seasonality of July determines that in certain sectors, very directly linked to the peak of tourist activity, there are significant increases in employment. And this year, there have been no exceptions. The three sectors which saw their workforce increase the most strongly are the Hotel industry, whose increase was nearly 73,000 people in July, which represents an improvement for a sector still far from the pre-crisis situation, which still has 133,000 people. in ERTE-, Health Activities, with nearly 50,000 additional affiliates -a sector which generally experiences staff reinforcements with the seasonal influx of tourists- and Commerce, with nearly 46,000 additional affiliates in July, due to peaks of sales recorded in these months, due to sales and tourism.
On the contrary, other sectors destroy employment during the summer months, the most significant case being Education, which sees its number of affiliates decrease by 112 thousand people during the month of July, to which will be added those of August, where this phenomenon is also observed. This is one season each, as during the months of September and October, increases in employment in the education sector are always measured. This drop in education explains why a community highly specialized in this field, like Madrid, generally sees its numbers decrease during the month of July.