Published: Tuesday, May 4, 2021 7:01 AM
Isabel Díaz Ayuso will be the winner of the Community of Madrid elections on May 4 if the polls published in recent days are confirmed. Although another thing is whether he will govern since there are polls that predict a tie of seats between the right bloc (PP and Vox) and the left (PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos).
Since last Thursday 28, the last day when the law authorizes the publication of election polls, no media can echo these polls. The latter correspond to the CIS polls, the Barometer of laSexta, Metroscopia for El País, NC Report of La Razón and GAD3 of ABC.
All coincide: the People’s Party will be the party with the most votes, even if it would need Vox’s support to obtain an absolute majority. The PSOE would remain the leader of the opposition and Más Madrid would be the third political force. Vox would be fourth and Unidos Podemos would have around 11 seats and would be the fifth force in the Madrid Assembly. The citizens would not exceed 5% of the vote, it would therefore remain without representation in the autonomous Parliament. .
Isabel Díaz Ayuso, twice as many seats as in 2019
According to polls, Díaz Ayuso would not only win the elections, but even double the number of seats he currently has (30).
The latest CEI poll gives the popular between 54 and 56 seats in the Assembly and 36.7% of the votes in Madrid, against 22.2% they obtained in the regional elections of 2019.
The last big barometer of laSexta published last Thursday 28 assigns even more deputies to Díaz Ayuso, with a total of 63 seats.
In the same direction, underlines the ABC survey of GAD3, which foresees that the current president of the Community of Madrid will obtain between 62 and 63 deputies. The NC Report of the Ratio and Metroscopia for El País study provides 60 and 59 seats respectively for the popular.
Of course, winning regional elections will not be the last step in governing in the Community of Madrid. The most popular must have the backing of Vox, led by Rocío Monasterio, whom polls approve as the fourth force in the region. Between the two parties, they would add between 67 and 75 seats, far exceeding the 69 needed to obtain an absolute majority.
The CEI grants the far-right party between 11 and 13 deputies in the Madrid Assembly, a little more the laSexta barometer which provides for 14 seats and Metroscopia which ventures 13 seats. On the other hand, the GAD3 poll and the NC report give it 11 and 12 seats. They currently have 12 deputies.
Citizens, outside the Madrid Assembly
Ciudadanos would be the big loser in these elections, according to the polls. The Orange Party, led by Edmundo Bal, who has co-governed in coalition with the PP for the past two years, is on the verge of leaving the Assembly.
All the polls predict that the political formation gathers around 4% of the votes of the Madrilenians, insufficient for the 5% of the votes necessary to obtain a representation. A dramatic drop, since it now has 26 deputies.
PSOE, More Madrid and we can stop the right
Angel Gabilondo’s PSOE would be the second political option. All the polls agree on this. On the one hand, the CIS expects the Socialists to reach between 34 and 36 MPs, slightly less than the 37 seats they won in the last regional elections, where it turned out to be the party the most voted. The LaSexta barometer and the NC report give the left wing a total of 33 seats, while the Metroscopia and GAD3 polls predict that the Socialists will have fewer deputies on May 4, between 27 and 29.
On the other hand, in the left bloc, Más Madrid would be the third most voted political party. The formation led by Mónica García won 20 seats in the last elections to the Community of Madrid and this May 4, it is expected to maintain or increase these seats. The poll carried out by the CEI predicts that the political party created in 2018 will obtain between 22 and 24 deputies in the Assembly, in the same way that Metroscopia gives it 25 seats. The GAD3 barometer and the NC report see Más Madrid get between 20 and 21 deputies at the polls next Tuesday, the 4th, while the laSexta barometer predicts that the Madrid party will fall compared to 2019, gathering 15 seats.
Finally, United We Can. Investigation by Metroscopia, NC Report and GAD3 indicates that Pablo Iglesias’ party will win 11 seats, surpassing 7 in the last election. Meanwhile, the CIS predicts it will reach between 11 and 13 deputies and the LaSexta Barometer, 10.
In total, the sum of the seats of the left bloc, approximately, would be 67 seats, against 72 that the People’s Party and Vox could obtain. However, anything can happen, since according to the CIS, there is 30% undecided.