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In a scenario of uncertainty linked to the second wave, the new state of alert and increasing restrictions, the forecasts for economic growth and employment depend on aid from the European Union ??

Adecco values ​​unemployment data: • In a scenario of uncertainty linked to the second wave, to the new state of alarm and to increasing restrictions, forecasts of economic growth and employment depend on aid from the European Union.

Unemployment data for October 2020 has just been released, this time leading to a slight increase in the number of social security affiliates. This figure rises to 18,990,364 registered with Social Security in October. This is the highest figure since March although it implies a decrease of 439,600 jobs over the last twelve months (-2.3% over one year). The decline, while significant, is, together with the previous month, the most moderate year-over-year decline in affiliate numbers over the past seven months.

Regarding the number of registered unemployed, this amounts to 3,826,043. The year-over-year increase was 648,400 unemployed (+ 20.4%), which is the lowest of last seven months.

Javier Blasco, director of the Adecco Group Institute, affirms that “the strong rebound in activity in the third quarter gives us an October with a slight growth in social security affiliation, although unemployment already exceeds 3, 8 million workers and permanent contracts are already decreasing more than temporary contracts ”.

The tightening of measures to fight the pandemic in several autonomies increases the uncertainty about what could be the evolution of the labor market in November. In principle, results of general appearance similar to this month are expected, with 18.9 million affiliates (-2.4% year on year) and 3.8 million unemployed (+ 20.2%) .

The director of the Adecco Group Institute ensures that: “in a scenario where uncertainty is marked by the second wave of infections, the new state of alarm and increasing restrictions in neighboring countries, the growth forecasts of the economy and employment depend more than ever on aid from the European Union, on the question of whether this materializes in investments favoring activity and employment, and on the “brake” effect that the recovery of the rest of the countries of the Union has on our activity ”.

In addition, according to Blasco, “all efforts must be focused on maintaining and recovering the productive economy. Enabling businesses and employers to survive and restart as soon as possible is essential to maintaining the organizational capital and jobs necessary for the recovery. Investment and employment will depend on production capacity, and consumption and contributions depend on it to support public budgets that allow meeting current and future health and social needs with guarantees ”.

And, finally, it is urgent to “promote active employment policies and those which make the labor market more flexible and promote hiring, social dialogue and collective bargaining which contribute to this flexibility as a guarantee of employment. , minimize taxes and contributions from employers, businesses and self-employed. Promote the training and re-qualification of workers, in particular the most vulnerable groups, young people, the long-term unemployed, over 55, women and people with different abilities, ”explains Javier Blasco.

Strong points

As the Labor Ministry announced earlier today, the number of registered unemployed last month is 3,826,043 people. Thus, the increase from one year to the next was 648,400 unemployed (+ 20.4%), the lowest of the last seven months.

Regarding affiliation, the number of Social Security affiliates is 18,990,364 people. This is the highest figure since March although it implies a decrease of 439,600 jobs over the last twelve months (-2.3% over one year).

For the fifth month in a row, Services was again the sector in which enrollments fell the most, with a 2.5% year-over-year decline (375,500 fewer jobs), although this or also the smallest variation in seven months.

During the month of October, 1.55 million contracts were signed (-30.3%). Permanent contracts fell more sharply (-36% over one year, the largest drop in five months) than temporary contracts (-29.6%).

In addition, unemployment among those under 25 increased by 35.9% over one year, more than double that of those over this age (+ 19%).

Another figure released today by the Ministry of Labor is the number of employees in force majeure ERTEs, which stands at 497,300 employees.

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