In terms of diplomacy, the biggest movement in the world is still visible in Afghanistan. With the departure of the Trump administration in America, it was decided that something big was going to happen here. But the diplomatic priorities of the Biden administration are not yet clear, so each is making their own preparations. In January, a Taliban delegation traveled to Moscow to negotiate with the Russian administration. In February, Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghan affairs, flew to Kabul with an eight-page document so that the Ashraf Ghani administration can crack down on the Doha deal struck with the Taliban last year. . Last Saturday, the first week of March, a three-page letter written to the President of Afghanistan from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was leaked and the next day Russia’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zameer Kabulov surrendered. in Pakistan and held an important meeting in Moscow. March 18 declare.
Beyond the spring offensive
One of the reasons for this glorification is seasonal. We have seen for some time that diplomatic information from Afghanistan increases dramatically in February-March. The reason is the terrible phenomenon called “Spring Offensive”. In the 1980s, the Mujahedin and then the Taliban (except their ruling Waqf) against the occupying Russians, destroy their country in the fierce winter caves of Hindukush and dislodge the feet of government forces with the melting snow. The forces in power try to keep them entangled in February-March so that, at the very least, they have time to strengthen their front. But this time the question is beyond that. In February 2020, in an agreement with the Taliban, the Trump administration set a 14-month deadline for the withdrawal of all US and NATO forces, which will end in May. The Biden administration does not want to break this agreement, so that his military camps remain protected from Taliban attacks until his return.
Remember, the United States had done the task of overthrowing the power of the Taliban by setting up its army in 2001, immediately after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Tower. In the 20 years since, al-Qaeda has broken its back, and even ISIS has emerged later, but the strength of the Afghan Taliban remains intact despite the death of its charismatic leader, the mullah Omar. Some believed its power lay in outside support. The huge donations from the Gulf countries and the arms of Pakistan do not allow the Taliban to weaken. But the economic situation of the Gulf countries has been in crisis since the recession of 2008, and since the withdrawal of the American hand from the head of Pakistan, he has become like an orphan child. Despite this, the Taliban have stayed away, the reason for this is the religious and nationalist attraction of the Afghan people towards them.
There are three major points in the Athapeji document of the Biden administration presented by Jhalme Khalilzad. First, how to achieve a permanent ceasefire between Afghan forces and the Taliban. Second, how to form and form a transitional government that maintains peace in the country. And thirdly, a constitution should be prepared for Afghanistan, but what should be its structure and what procedure should be adopted for it. We saw a similar start 15 years ago in our neighboring country, Nepal, but it took five years to hold the first election of the first phase, i.e. the Constituent Assembly. Then, in ten years, consensus was reached on the constitution and the first government elected under the new constitution is now halfway there. With that in mind, the question of all this happening in Afghanistan in two months seems like a lackey in itself, the Afghans are not doing anything wrong by seeing it as such.
Regarding the document, the Taliban say it will all happen later, but according to the Doha agreement, ten thousand American troops are expected to withdraw from here. There is also a dispute over the number of American troops present in Afghanistan. Afghan Vice President Amarullah Saleh issued a statement: “America can decide its army, not our country. If he wants to take back his two and a half thousand soldiers, but the new government in Afghanistan will only come by elections, not by imposing anyone. The Trump administration had called for 5,000 troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan within 135 days of signing the Doha deal, and at the end of February 2020, a total of 12,800 NATO troops were there. Again, Kovid’s outcry and uproar over the US election did not reveal whether the US had followed through on their mid-July speech. If this is done, then only eight thousand foreign soldiers will be there.
How should the constitution
A great controversy is doomed to get bogged down in the structure of the constitution, which according to the Taliban should be sharia, while the American proposal is for any democracy of public rights, including the freedom of women. But before that, the issue of foreign interference in Afghan affairs must be resolved. The American proposal is for two meetings. America, China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran under the aegis of the United Nations, which will decide the future of Afghanistan. The second is the Taliban and Afghan government in Turkey, which is discussing the ceasefire and the transitional government. But before that, the meeting called by Russia in Moscow on March 18 will be in the discussion, which will have the Afghan government and the Taliban, but India’s name has been removed from the list of US invitations to foreigners. It will be very dangerous for us because any government in Afghanistan over the Taliban will prove harmful to Kashmir.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are those of the author