Membership rises in October, but unemployment rises and hiring slows, Randstad analysis shows

Randstad Research analysis: “Education created jobs (but less than last year) and hospitality destroyed them (more than in 2019)”

Membership rises in October, but unemployment rises and hiring slows, Randstad analysis shows

The labor market records for October this year reflect reasonably positive behavior, which gives continuity to the signs of a labor market recovery seen over the previous three months. Registration and unemployment have improved their behavior compared to October of last year. Hiring continues to show very significant year-over-year reductions, which accelerated last month compared to September. Finally, the number of people affected by ERTE is 599,000, after a reduction of 130,000 during the month of October.

Social Security enrollments in October increased by 113,974 people, an increase of 0.60%, the second best performance that month in the historic series (2018 was the best). The seasonally adjusted series also reflects an increase in registrations in October and the year-over-year change was -2.26%. The total number of affiliates is 18.99 million people.

Hires were down 4.97% from September, with a total of 1.55 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the drop in hiring occurred both in the permanent (-6.67%) and in the interim (-4.78%). On a year-over-year basis, permanent hires were down 35.96% while temporary hires were down 29.59% from October 2019 figures, still reflecting the strong impact on hiring of the economic recession following the covid-19 crisis.

Registered unemployment increased by 49,558 people in October (+ 1.31%), the best October since 2016. Seasonally adjusted data, the data is positive as a monthly drop in unemployment has been measured. The total number of registered unemployed stands at 3.83 million.

Hires fell 4.97% in October, accelerating each year (-30.27%)

Hiring decreased slightly compared to September, which was not the behavior to expect a priori (last year in October, hires increased by more than 6% compared to September). The drop, of 4.97%, can be explained by the two types of hiring, but with more intensity in the case of permanent contracts. A total of 1.55 million contracts were signed in October, while in October last year 2.2 million contracts were signed.

In the case of open-ended contracts, 152,319 contracts were signed in October (the lowest figure this month since 2015), which is 10,890 less than in September (-6.67%), while Temporary contracts, with 1.40 million contracts in October, recorded a monthly decrease of 70,237 contracts (-4.78%).

Over one year, hires fell sharply compared to the same month of 2019 (-30.27%), also accelerating the drop in September (-22.06%). In October, the declines occurred both in temporary recruitments (-35.96% in its inter-annual rate, which also breaks the gradual downward trend of decreases) and in permanent contracts (-29.59% ).

In seasonally adjusted terms, membership increased by 45,000 in October and unemployment fell by 46,000

Registered unemployment fell, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 46,014 people during the month of October, reflecting very positive behavior over this period, for the fourth consecutive month since the start of the COVID-19 crisis which, for the moment, caused strong year-on-year unemployment growth of 20.40%.

The seasonally adjusted series of Social Security registrations in October reflects an increase of 45,365 people compared to September, or a growth of 0.24%, due to the tendency for activity to resume in the labor market.

In annual terms, seasonally adjusted memberships fell 5 cents and are now down 2.26% from the June low.

Education led the increase in employment, with 137,000 more affiliates in October

Social security affiliation increased in 14 of the 17 Autonomous Communities and in Melilla during the month of October. The strongest increases took place in the Valencian Community (+42 201) and Madrid (+ 36 208), while the largest decrease was measured in the Balearic Islands (-58 970). Registered unemployment increased in 14 Autonomous Communities. The greatest increase was measured in Andalusia (+9.506) and the largest decrease in Pas Vasco (-6.287). By sector, the largest increases in enrollment were recorded in education (+137,502) and the largest decrease.

Randstad research analysis: education created jobs (but less than last year) and hospitality destroyed it (more than in 2019)

The month of October is generally characterized by a very characteristic employment pattern in sectoral terms. Some sectors (especially the hospitality industry) significantly reduced their activity levels as early as that month, while others, like education, rebounded strongly. This year there were no exceptions, but detailed analysis points to a worse performance.

Starting with the sectors that create jobs, the main protagonist in October is education, which has increased this year by 137,502 members (135,032 in the general scheme and 2,471 in the self-employed), an increase significantly lower than that of last year, since In October 2019, the education sector saw its employment increase by almost 157 thousand people, 20 thousand more than this year. The second sector that created the most jobs in October was the public sector, and in this case the figures for last year were exceeded: an increase of 27 subsidiaries in this sector in October against 16 thousand in 2019 .

Regarding the sectors that destroy the most jobs during the month of October, traditionally the palm is taken by the hotel sector: last month, 90,050 affiliates were left, which clearly exceeds the loss of employment in this sector in 2019 (-65,223). In addition, the loss of hospitality employment in October is particularly striking as during the summer months the workforce increased considerably less than usual in previous years, highlighting the difficult situation that crosses this sector in the present.

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