Publication: Monday April 26, 2021 11:05 PM
It seems that since the pandemic devastated our lives, everything around us has stopped to some extent: hobbies, personal projects and, in the case of the less fortunate, also work. This did not happen with politics, which in recent months has maintained its breakneck pace, taking us from elections in the Basque Country, Galicia and Catalonia to others in Madrid, shaking the governments of other intermediate communities. , motions of censure.
In this way, the political panorama now places us in the middle of a fierce electoral campaign in which the future of the Madrid Assembly is decided, which was dissolved in mid-March due to fear of the current president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, from this, the deputies themselves decided to dismiss her. Instead, he felt that the support he might not find in the House would be received from the people of Madrid and Madrid, with whom he now has to reach the Puerta del Sol without having to do so in the company of citizens. .
The key appointment is in just a few days: Tuesday May 4, something virtually unprecedented in our country, where election days are generally held on Sunday. For these elections, citizens have 23 voting options, from classic PP and PSOE to parties that are released this year during an election call.
In any case, there are six that get a lot of media attention and, presumably, votes: Más Madrid, Ciudadanos, Vox and Unidas Podemos, in addition to the aforementioned and “popular” socialists. Unsurprisingly, these are the six formations that in 2019 completed the Assembly, although now the Orange Party may not have representation in the House.
The People’s Party, everyone’s favorite and enemy
If there is one candidate who has made the headlines of almost every headline since mid-March, it’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso: current regional president, head of the People’s Party list and responsible for Madrid’s appeal to the ballot box on May 4, after appeal. elections after the motion of censure presented in Murcia.
With an estimated vote of 36.7% and between 54 and 56 seats, according to the latest CIS poll published on Thursday, April 22, the PP aspires to govern the Community alone or, if necessary, to join forces with Vox. The intention, in any case, is to do without Ciudadanos, a government partner since 2019 and with whom Ayuso has had many political ups and downs over the past two years.
Another of the protagonists of the party with Díaz Ayuso was Toni Cantó, a former member of Ciudadanos and whom the “popular” presented as one of their star signatures for these elections. However, the Constitutional Court ended up considering that he did not comply with the requirements of the electoral law to be able to stand for the Madrid elections, because at the beginning of the year he was not registered in the Community of Madrid ( he did it on March 22). Therefore, finally, it does not appear in the list of PPs.
[[H3:El PSOE, a romper con 26 años de los ‘populares’ en Madrid]]
Far from the controversy and media “ spectacle ” that an electoral campaign usually involves, Ángel Gabilondo is repeating himself as a socialist candidate two years after having been the most voted option in the community, which on the other hand was insufficient to reach the Puerta del Sol Profile which he himself defines as “dull, serious and formal”, Gabilondo seeks to achieve what has been impossible for the PSOE over the past 26 years: to lead a left-wing government in the Community of Madrid .
In the process of trying, the CIS places them as the second most voted option with 23.4% of the vote, ie 13 points less than those obtained by the “popular”. That would translate to a total of 34 to 36 MPs, up from 37 two years ago.
The option of the Socialists, in this context, is to come to an agreement with other groups to accede to the presidency. After initially rejecting a partnership with United We Can, a party Gabilondo called an “extremist”, he has now changed his mind and, during the debate on April 21, he even said: “Pablo, we have 12 days. to win the elections. “If he becomes president, he has already announced that his economic vice-president would be Reyes Maroto, current Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism.
Vox may be the key to a right-wing government
With the presence of Citizens in the Assembly suspended by a thread, those of Rocío Monasterio position themselves as the great partner of the PP in a possible right-wing government.
With the same candidate who was at the top of their lists in 2019, the far-right formation could this time add 8.2% of the vote, according to the CEI, which would be worth getting between 11 and 13 seats. Assembly. If the forecasts come true, they would remain in line with the last elections, when they reached 12 deputies in Madrid.
The May 4 Vox campaign is not without controversy. In addition to the doubts presented by Monasterio in relation to the threatening letters addressed to Pablo Iglesias, Grande-Marlaska and María Gámez, there is in particular the inflammatory poster published by the party comparing the pension billed by an elderly woman with what a UM. would have perceived. in Spain on a monthly basis, which was refused. Justice, however, did not withdraw it because it considers that [[LINK:INTERNO|||Article|||6082c3e74beb28170e40f263|||no es un delito de odio y que no supone un “peligro concreto”]].
[[H3:Más Madrid, el aliado preferido de Gabilondo… ¿y del antiguo votante de Podemos?]]
Two-party politics have long ago given way to a policy of pacts in which winning elections is only a preliminary step in forming a government. In this new political scenario, Más Madrid seems essential to achieve a hypothetical majority on the left, especially if Gabilondo takes up his original idea of not including “purple” in the equation. Without the hope of leading the progressive bloc, Más Madrid aspires to play a fundamental role in the puzzle that will be the future regional nomination.
To achieve this, the party chose Mónica García to replace Íñigo Errejón. Perhaps of a lesser-known profile, García has the endorsement that she is a doctor by profession (which could be more important than it seems in a pandemic situation like the one we live in) and that his great competitor, Pablo Iglesias, I perhaps recognize the fact of having left a general vice-presidency to be a candidate in a community.
Más Madrid’s expectations for May 4 are optimistic, as they could reach between 22 and 24 deputies in the Assembly (by 20 in 2019) and 15.1% of the vote, according to CEI polls.
[[H3:Pablo Iglesias se fija en el ‘efecto Illa’ y liderará Unidas Podemos]]
Just five days after Díaz Ayuso announced the call for elections in Madrid, Pablo Iglesias took an unexpected turn in his political career, announcing that he would step down from the second vice-presidency of the national government to run as a candidate for United We Can to Madrid. The decision, according to Iglesias himself, responded to the fact that his party needed him at that point in Madrid’s candidacy and that he had to stand up to Díaz Ayuso to prevent him from returning to the regional presidency.
After Más Madrid’s rejection of a joint candidacy, the ‘Morados’ aspire to be able to come to an agreement with García’s team after the elections, as well as with the PSOE, who now see United We as necessary to govern.
In this future left-wing government, those of Iglesias could contribute between 11 and 13 deputies, calculates the CIS, convincing 11.5% of the electorate. In a way, the “ Illa effect ” would repeat itself in Madrid, the move from a ministerial portfolio to a region resulting in more votes for his party compared to the previous elections, where the formation “ violet had obtained 7 deputies. Iglesias’ role in the campaign, especially after the episode of the electoral debate on Cadena SER, could benefit him on election day.
Citizens: no representation in the Assembly?
To some extent expected and to some extent surprising, it would be that Ciudadanos did not have a seat in the Madrid Assembly on May 4th. At least this scenario is the one drawn by the latest CIS poll, which estimates that the Orange party will not exceed 4.6% of the total vote, which would be insufficient to obtain a deputy.
The maximum responsible for what happens will be Edmundo Bal, signed by Albert Rivera for the general elections of April 2019 and who since then has climbed positions in the center-right formation. After securing a deputy seat in Congress and being appointed deputy spokesperson for his party in the House, he arrives in Madrid with the hope of boosting morale in a party badly injured after the latest results of the last general and autonomous elections in Catalonia. .
If he enters the assembly, his representatives should offer their support for a hypothetical inauguration of Díaz Ayuso, although Gabilondo has also extended his hand.
What other matches are presented?
Despite the fact that they occupy most of the media attention and garner the votes of the vast majority of Madrilenians, there is life beyond the six main parties. Thus, during the regional elections of May 4, 17 other political groups are presented, some with a long democratic history and others of recent creation.
They are: the Humanist Party (PH), the Spanish Falange de las JONS (FE de las JONS), the Communist Workers’ Party of Spain (PCTE), the Animalist Party against Animal Abuse (PACMA), the Autonomous Party , the Third Age in Action (3rd in action), the European Social Democratic Party of Pensioners (PDSJE), the European Union of Pensioners (UEP), Unidos-Green Coalition (Unidos-Def-C’S-Verde, the Coalition for communist unity (PCOE-PCPE)), the Libertarian Party (P-LIB), Central Unit (UDEC), Order and Law (POLE), Volt Spain (VOLT), Blank Seats (EB), For a fairer world (PUM + J) and the candidacy that brings together Cero Cutouts, the Castilian Party, Tierra Comunera, Green Group and Municipalistas (Cero Cutouts-PCAS-TC-GV-M).
You can consult the complete lists of each of these parts in this document of the Official Journal of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).
Candidates and possible seats for each party
These are the people who lead the main party lists, as well as the seats they won in 2019 and those who could get that 4M, according to the latest CIS survey.
Candidate: Ángel Gabilondo
Seats in 2019: 37
Possible seats in 2021: 34-36
Candidate: Isabel Díaz Ayuso
Seats in 2019: 30
Possible seats in 2021: 54-56
Candidate: Edmundo Bal
Seats in 2019: 26
Possible seats in 2021: 0
Candidate: Rocío Monasterio
Seats in 2019: 12
Possible seats in 2021: 11-13
Candidate: Mónica García
Seats in 2019: 20
Possible seats in 2021: 22-24
Candidate: Pablo Iglesias
Seats in 2019: 7
Possible seats in 2021: 11-13