Randstad Research assesses unemployment data: “August leaves good numbers: record drop in unemployment and reasonable drop in membership”
It is common to measure decreases in membership and increases in unemployment during the months of August, and in 2021 there were surprises in one of the two series, although in both cases the behavior was positive. Membership recorded the second best performance this month since 2014 – oddly enough, the data that improves it was from August 2020 -. In addition, it increases significantly in seasonally adjusted terms. ERTEs were reduced by 59,000 people during the month, although they still affect 272,000 people. Reported unemployment, for its part, had the best performance that month of the entire historic August series. Finally, hires have increased sharply from one year to the next.
Social security affiliation in August fell by 118,004 people, a decrease of 0.60%, the second best performance of this variable that month since 2014. It should also be taken into account that the people affected by ERTE, which are included in the total number of affiliates, they decreased from 59 thousand in August, to 272 thousand people. The seasonally adjusted affiliate series reflects a noticeable increase in membership in August and the year-over-year change decelerated for the second month in a row, at 3.63%. The total number of affiliates is 19.47 million people.
Hires were down 23.43% from July, with a total of 1.41 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the drop in hiring occurred both in the interim (-22.97%) and in the indefinite period (-28.11%). On a year-over-year basis, permanent hires increased 23.59% while temporary contracts increased 26.04% compared to August 2020 figures.
Unemployment declared fell in August by 82,583 people (-2.42%), which is the best performance in August of the entire historical series. In seasonally adjusted terms, the data is positive as it reflects a drop in unemployment recorded in August. The total number of registered unemployed stands at 3.33 million people.
In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment fell by 149,000 people in August and registrations increased by 77,000
Registered unemployment fell, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 149,203 people during the month of August, reflecting a genuinely positive behavior over this period.
The seasonally adjusted Social Security affiliation series in August reflects an increase of 76,541 people from July, which equates to an increase of 0.39%, which reinforces the positive behavior that was also measured in July and relates four consecutive months to improvements in seasonally adjusted data. series.
Year-on-year, seasonally adjusted memberships increased by 3.63%, comparing August 2021 to August 2020, a month still heavily affected by the crisis. The targeted annual growth assumes a deceleration of 1.1 points compared to the June figures.
Hospitality and Health, the sectors with the greatest increase in employment. Education and construction, the most
Social security affiliation fell in 10 of the 17 Autonomous Communities in August. The most significant decreases were measured in Catalonia (-50,027) and Madrid (-25,069). The largest increases were recorded in the Balearic Islands (+6 109) and the Canary Islands (+5 868). Registered unemployment fell in 13 Autonomous Communities. The largest drop was measured in Andalusia (-32,102) and the Canary Islands (-19,844). The strongest increase in unemployment was recorded in the Valencian Community (+6,606).
By sector, membership in August, with marked seasonality, increased in the Hospitality sector (+31,337), closely followed by the increase in Healthcare activities (+26,593). In contrast, the sectors where membership declined the most during August were education (-61,249), construction (-21,018) and manufacturing (-17,514).
The annual growth in hiring, 25.83%, a little more intense in the case of temporary workers
Hires decreased compared to July. The decrease, of 23.43%, is explained by the hiring of both permanent and temporary contracts: in total, 1.41 million contracts were signed in August, while in August 2020 only 1.12 million were signed contracts.
Regarding permanent hires, 118,985 contracts were signed in August, i.e. 46,515 less than in July (-28.11%), while temporary hires, with 1.29 million contracts in August, recorded a decrease of 384,172 contracts over one month (-22.97%), to the level –for one month of August- of 2015.
Year-on-year, hires are growing strongly, compared to August 2020, a month still very affected by the crisis, and reflect an increase of 25.83%, with growth both in CDI (+ 23.59%) and temporary workers (+ 26.04%).
Randstad Research analysis: 88,000 additional unemployed and 272,000 people at ERTE reflect the distance from the pre-crisis scenario
August brought good unemployment figures and – in seasonally adjusted terms – also positive social security affiliation. In the first case, the decline of 83,000 unemployed was the best performance in August of the entire historical series. In the second case, the loss of 118,000 affiliates was the second best month of August since 2014. This positive development in employment figures was accompanied by messages indicating a certain triumphalism, but the fact must be taken into account that currently, with the figures at the end of August, the labor market is undoubtedly worse than before the crisis (February 2020).
In fact, that month the number of registered unemployed stood at 3,246,047, while in August 2021 a figure of 3,333,915 was closed. Thus, we note that there are still 87,868 more unemployed than before the outbreak of the health and economic crisis in our country.
Things may not be so clear with social security affiliation. Today the number of affiliates is 19.47 million, while in February 2020 it was 19.25 million. August ended with 223,945 more members than before the crisis. But it must be taken into account that within this figure are counted the 272,190 workers who are still at ERTE today, and that consequently they do not work although they appear in the statistics as registered affiliates. Both on the affiliation side and on the side of registered unemployment, there is still a long way to go.