Publication: Monday, May 24, 2021 1:11 PM
The coronavirus pandemic in Spain is under control. This is clear from the latest indicators which place the positivity rate at 4.9%, below the 5% set by the World Health Organization to consider an epidemic under control.
This counter marked 6.4% in the week of May 3 to 7 and its trend was downward: in the week of 10 to 14 it marked 5,% until reaching 4.9% in the week from 17 to 21.
The incidence of coronavirus accumulated at 14 days also follows a downward progression and with a rate of 135.77 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the latest Health report, we are at the levels of March 2021, just before the rebound undergone at Easter. At that time, Spain only managed to descend to 127.
But these are not the only favorable parameters today and it is that the trend of infections, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths has continued to gradually decrease during this month.
In the first week of May, more than 46,400 infections were recorded, a figure that rose to 37,391 in the second week and fell to 31,654 by the third week of the month. The death rate followed a similar trajectory, which fell from 576 and 547 deaths in the first two weeks, to a drastic collapse in the third, with 281 deaths.
The number of hospitalizations is also positive, going from 8,605 the first week of the month to 5,717 the last. Data that goes hand in hand with ICU admissions: from 2183 the week of May 3-7 to 1655 the week of May 17-21.
This development is due in large part to the progress of vaccination throughout Spain, which already has nearly eight million people with the two doses administered – 16.6% of the population – and with more than 16 million with at least a dose -34.5% of citizenship-.
The trend of the vaccination campaign in Spain has continued has been constant this month and is that in each of the weeks more than two million doses were administered.
IHME puts Spain on the home stretch of the pandemic
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the prestigious research center at the University of Washington, created by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has placed Spain on the home stretch of the pandemic.
Its short-term projections paint an encouraging scenario and is that they point to a stabilization of the number of deaths and a decrease in hospitalizations and intensive care. When it comes to infections, he also predicts stagnation, although in the worst-case scenario he sees a huge increase that would not translate into hospital pressure.
Let’s go in parts: the second of the searchable graphs at the end of these lines shows the number of daily deaths to date and we can clearly see the two peaks corresponding to the second and third waves of the pandemic. The flashing purple lines indicate the IHME forecast, which between July and September 2021 would drop to levels well below those recorded in summer 2020.
In flashing red we can see the Institute’s worst forecast which would place growth from July 2021, although in September of the same year it would not reach the levels of March, when we managed to stop the third wave. The IHME recalls that daily deaths are the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a delay of 17 to 21 days between infection and deaths.
The third of the graphs refers to the hospital resources needed to serve the entire population affected by COVID. The intermittent purple line indicates the beds needed to treat infected people and projects a considerable decrease from July 2021. The same is true with the beds required for intensive care, represented in the intermittent green line, which shows a very large decrease compared to the summer months of this year.
The fourth graph shows us the daily contagions: the IHME projection is very promising and places this indicator as early as June at levels never seen in 2021. The same graph, in flashing red, shows the worst forecast, with an increase that would approach the peak of the third wave.
In any case, the forecasts are very good until September 2021, when the vaccination, according to government forecasts, will have reached at least 70% of the Spanish population.