Unemployment data according to Randstad: the dynamics of January, the worst month of the year, leaves (relatively) positive figures but hiring continues without recovering
In a traditionally negative month, the labor market records in January of this year reflect relatively positive behavior in terms of membership and registered unemployment, since they improve the development of January 2020, a month when the market of work is still not affected by the pandemic. Membership fell, but less than in January last year, and the number of workers affected by ERTEs also declined slightly, while unemployment rose, but less than the previous two January. Hiring continues to show significant year-over-year reductions in January.
Social security enrollment in January fell by 218,953 people, a drop of 1.15%, the second worst January since 2013, although improving last year. It should be taken into account, however, that those affected by ERTE decreased by 17,000 during the month of January, while they continue to reach 738,000. The seasonally adjusted series of affiliates reflects an increase in l affiliation in January and the interannual variation stands at -1.75%. The total number of affiliates once again loses the 19 million threshold and rises to 18.83 million people.
Hires were down 3.89% from December, with a total of 1.30 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the drop in hiring only occurred in the interim (-5.23%), since permanent employment increased (+ 11.06%). On a year-over-year basis, permanent hires fell 30.61% while temporary hires fell 25.70% compared to January 2020 figures, which still reflects the strong impact on hiring of the economic stagnation in the has a covid-19 crisis.
Reported unemployment rose to 76,216 people in January (+ 1.96%), the smallest increase in January since 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, the data is positive, as it reflects a reduction in registered unemployment in January. The total number of registered unemployed is 3.96 million.
In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment fell by 17,000 people in January and membership increased by almost 40,000
Registered unemployment fell, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 17,544 people during the month of January, reflecting genuinely positive behavior during this period and contrasting with what happened the month before.
The seasonally adjusted Social Security affiliation series in January reflects an increase of 39,814 people compared to December, up 0.21%, leading to eight months of improvement in the series without seasonality.
On a year-to-year basis, seasonally adjusted membership improved by 12 hundredths, reducing its drop, and down 1.75%, compared to the May minimum (-4.56%).
Hospitality and commerce each lose 39,000 members in January
Social security affiliation fell in the 17 Autonomous Communities in January. The most significant decreases took place in Catalonia (-36,770), Com. Valenciana (-35,468) and Madrid (-32,423). Registered unemployment increased in 15 Autonomous Communities. The largest increase was measured in Andalusia (+18,249) and the largest decrease in Galicia (-3,603).
By sector, membership fell in all areas in January. The most significant declines occurred in the hospitality (-39,670), commerce (-38,071) and administrative and auxiliary services (-36,644) sectors. On a year-over-year basis, the sector that lost the most jobs was the hotel industry (-242,081) and the one that increased the most, health activities (+85,456).
The year-over-year drop in hiring accelerated in January and exceeded a 26% drop
Hiring decreased slightly compared to December. The decrease, of 3.89%, can only be explained by temporary recruitments, since the permanent has increased. In total, 1.30 million contracts were signed in January, while in January 2020, 1.76 million contracts were concluded.
In the case of open-ended contracts, 124,191 contracts were signed in January (the lowest figure this month since 2015), or 12,369 more than in December (+ 11.06%), while temporary contracts , with 1.18 million contracts in January, recorded a monthly decline of 65,087 contracts (-5.23%), the lowest level in January since 2014.
Over one year, hires continue to fall sharply compared to the same month in 2020 (-26.20%), and the decline has accelerated compared to what happened in December. In January, the declines occurred both in temporary contracts (-25.70% in its interannual rate) and in permanent contracts (-30.61%).
Randstad Research analysis: the dynamics of January, the worst month of the year, leaves (relatively) positive figures
The analysis of the labor market makes it very important to differentiate “the still photo”, the situation at a certain moment, like January 2021, from the dynamics, the trend reflected in the figures.
If we look at the first aspect, the photo of the labor market in January, after knowing the figures today, the results can only be negative: a membership figure of 18.83 million people, which counts also those included in an ERTE, which represents 739 thousand. In addition, registered unemployment is already reaching levels very close to four million people, after an annual increase of 710,000 people.
The feeling of work reflected in the dynamics, on the other hand, is quite different. In a month as complicated as January, registrations increased in seasonally adjusted terms by almost 40,000 people – and also lead to eight consecutive months of increases in the series without seasonality – and unemployment recorded in January fell after seasonal adjustment. in about 17 thousand people.
But all that glitters is not gold: hiring continues without a rebound and is part of a year-on-year decline in January of -26.2% and with a very erratic trend, since they have even worsened compared to previous months.
In short, an image with lights and shadows. A trend of a slow improvement in the main figures, although with a negative starting point and no recovery in the recruitment dynamic.