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“The resurgence, new restrictions and the expiration of the ban on dismissals after ERTE, anticipate that the labor market will tend to worsen in the last quarter”

Adecco values ​​the data from the EPA Q3: “The reappearance, the new restrictions and the expiry of the period of prohibition on dismissals after ERTE, anticipate that the labor market will tend to deteriorate during the last quarter”

The data from the last survey on the active population, corresponding to the third quarter of 2020, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics, and which almost entirely covers the summer season, have just been published. In the third quarter of the year, 19.18 million people were employed. There are 697,400 fewer employees than a year earlier (-3.5%). This means having significantly reduced the employment rate year over year, which was 1.2 million in the previous quarter (-6%). This is explained by the creation of 569,700 jobs during the quarter.

For Javier Blasco, director of the Adecco Group Institute: “in a quarter which includes the best and the worst of the pandemic, employment has increased slightly compared to the previous quarter but also unemployment. The initial de-escalation exhausts in advance its positive effects on employment throughout the quarter, due to the outbreaks and its extension to all the autonomous communities and all the countries ”.

“The reappearance of the number of people infected with the coronavirus, the new restrictions which result from it on the normal development of the activity and the expiration of the period for which it was forbidden to dismiss the beneficiaries of ERTE, converge by anticipating that the Labor market figures will tend to deteriorate in the last quarter of the year. Thus, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of people employed will drop by 842,100 people compared to a year earlier (-4.2% on a year), leaving 19.1 million workers. The number of unemployed will rise to 3.9 million (around 710,000 more than a year ago; + 22.3%). The unemployment rate will settle at 17% , 3.2 percentage points above the same quarter of 2019, in what will be the highest record since June 2017, ”says Blasco.

“Being still uncertain, due to the start of lockdowns, the future of the fourth quarter requires a broad consensus to take measures that help to overcome the difficult situation of employment and the economy, the social drama we are witnessing », Says Blasco.

Finally, the director of the Adecco Group Institute insists on the fact that: “all efforts must focus on maintaining and resuming the productive economy. Enabling businesses and employers to survive and restart as soon as possible is essential to maintaining the organizational capital and jobs necessary for the recovery. Investment and employment will depend on production capacity, and consumption and contributions depend on it to support public budgets that meet current and future health and social needs with guarantees ”.

Along the same lines, Blasco adds that “it is necessary to promote active employment policies and those which make the labor market more flexible and promote hiring, social dialogue and collective bargaining which contribute to this flexibility. as a guarantee of employment, minimize taxes and contributions from employers, companies and the self-employed. Promote the training and re-qualification of workers, in particular the most vulnerable groups such as young people, the long-term unemployed, those over 55, women and people with different capacities ”.

Strong points

As already announced by the National Institute of Statistics, the number of registered unemployed was 3,722,000 at the end of September, the highest figure since March 2018 (annual increase of 580,500 people; + 15.8%). This is the largest percentage increase in unemployment since September 2012. For the second consecutive quarter, the number of unemployed has increased, which has not happened since 2013.

The rise in unemployment was concentrated among those under 40 and was higher among men than among women. Despite the general decline in employment, the number of unemployed only increased in eleven autonomous regions, with the Balearics showing the largest increase (+ 75.9% over one year).

The unemployment rate rose to 16.3%, 2.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. The proportion of unemployed increased for both sexes and more strongly among those under 40. The unemployment rate has increased in all the autonomous regions except Asturias. The highest rates correspond to the Canary Islands (25%) and Andalusia (23.8%), while the lowest are those of Navarre (10%) and the Basque Country (10.3%).

In inter-annual terms, the decline in employment became generalized: it fell for both sexes, both for Spaniards and for immigrants. The number of people employed has also decreased in the four main economic sectors: industry, services, agriculture and livestock and construction. Breaking down the information, we see that employment in the hotel industry fell by 19.3%, while employment increased in three branches: health and social services, public administration and information and the communications.

The reduction in employment, again in terms from year to year, affected both the self-employed and the employees, although to a much greater extent the temporary (-13%) than the permanent (-0.8 %).

Two groups saw employment increase: one is that of people aged 60 and over (+ 9.4%); the other, that of higher education graduates (+ 0.4%).

Employment fell in all the autonomous regions, except the region of Murcia (+ 0.1%). The Canary Islands (-8.1%), the Balearic Islands (-7.4%) and Aragn (-4.7%) recorded the most marked decreases.

If you want more information, we leave the webinar to you with the presentation of this data and forecast for the next EPA.

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