Posted: Monday May 3, 2021 9:00 PM
The latest polls for the Madrid elections indicate that, as is customary with recent election calls in Spain, the candidate who wants to become the region’s president must agree to a nomination deal.
In the last elections held in the Community of Madrid, the most voted candidate was Ángel Gabilondo. However, the sum of the left parties has not reached an absolute majority. It was Isabel Díaz Ayuso, of the PP, who succeeded in being invested president of Madrid by concluding an agreement with Ciudadanos and obtaining the support of Vox, who remained outside the government.
In the 2021 elections, the picture is different on some points and not so much on others. According to the latest polls, the polarization of Madrilenians between the left bloc and the right bloc could finally turn to the conservative side. LaSexta’s barometer, published for the last time, predicted this Wednesday 28 that Isabel Díaz Ayuso could win 63 seats in the elections of May 4. The popular would thus remain with 6 seats of the absolute majority, they would thus depend on Vox to form a government in the community.
The candidacy led by Rocío Monasterio would get 12 seats, the same ones she currently has in the Madrid Chamber. These seats would allow the party to negotiate a government with Ayuso. The PP’s hitherto priority partner in Madrid, Ciudadanos, would lose its 21 representatives in the Assembly, disappearing from Madrid’s political scene.
The left block does not add
The progressive option is losing strength in Madrid after the latest polls. Although at the start of the campaign it looked like Ayuso could run for president, Ángel Gabilondo would lose voter support, dropping from 37 socialist seats in the assembly to 33.
Plus Madrid would have 19 seats, one less than in the 2019 elections, remaining the second force on the left. At the same time, Unidos Podemos would improve its results compared to previous elections, going from 7 to 9 seats in the Assembly.
The sum of these three parties would remain at 61 seats, an insufficient amount to form a government. The only option for this bloc to govern would be if the PP does not reach an agreement with Vox, and that in a hypothetical investiture of Ángel Gabilondo, one of the two conservative groups abstains.
Despite Edmundo Bal’s attempts to revive Ciudadanos’ candidacy in these elections, polls have put an end to the orange trail in Madrid for weeks. The former prosecutor continues to defend that the Cs project will continue and that they will get the 5% of the vote necessary to secure seats in the chamber.
Bal continues to argue that his party is the best option to prevent Vox from entering the CAM government, and his intention is to confront his program with that of the Monastery. However, if we pay attention to the polls, the options for oranges to re-enter the Madrid Assembly and be part of the Madrid government are practically nil.
The laSexta pactometer is back
Users interested in calculating the number of seats that the different parties would add after the electoral nomination will be able to use the Pactometer, laSexta’s virtual calculator. This simple tool lets you know which alliances can achieve absolute majority.
All formations represented at the Madrid Assembly will appear with their corporate colors and may be selected for inclusion in a bar representing the Madrid Chamber. Once the parties have been chosen, it will be possible to verify whether their union exceeds the minimum of 69 seats necessary to form a government.