The US military has released pre-classified photographs and footage of flying unidentified object (UFO) sightings, most of which appear to have a weak object moving strangely. Now the question arises as to what extent is it reasonable to take on these vaguely fuzzy figures of the otherworld. On this subject, researcher Anders Sandberg from the University of Oxford in Great Britain told the truth in The Conversation.
People assume unknown objects like UFOs
He said that people often see such things in the sky, about which they know nothing. These are mainly planes, satellites, weather balloons, clouds and optical images. But there are things for which there is no known explanation. In such a situation, the problem is that people regard the unknown as an alien, that is, from another planet. But it is also strange as to why they don’t see them as angels. Well, I like to do math instead. Bayes’ formula, a mainstay of statistics, gives the probability (PR) of something given certain evidence.
Should we believe in aliens or not?
Going into details, it is said that the likelihood of UFOs being aliens based on some evidence depends on the likelihood that if UFOs were in fact aliens that evidence would emerge. It can be said in this way what is the probability of real evidence, which is extremely difficult. But what we’re really interested in is whether we should believe in aliens, or not believe in aliens, if the evidence tells us.
What is the probability of seeing a UFO in the sky?
When we do this, we also get rid of the odd factor of the likelihood of the evidence being. This equation now shows how likely it is that UFOs are aliens, compared to the likelihood that they are not, after viewing the footage. There are two factors in the equation. One is the likelihood that we think there are aliens. Some might call it 50:50, let’s make it the first factor. While others can do it a lot less, like 10-23. It is a belief statement based on knowledge of the world (using the famous Drake equation for example).
Not as much evidence as the existence of aliens
It must be multiplied by another factor, often referred to as the Bayes factor. This shows how specific the evidence we see is to the existence of aliens versus the existence of aliens. If I see a mysterious drop of light in the sky that could be aliens but could also be a lot of other things, the factor wouldn’t be much different from one – the evidence is as alien-specific as it is actually of not being aliens, and I didn’t change much in belief.
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The latest UFO revelations from the US government don’t bring me much light in the direction of extraterrestrials. Of course, there are a lot of weird sequences. But this can be explained by many other things. No alien photos here. Since even previous research has led me to believe that the universe is quite empty, I come to the conclusion of a very small individual possibility that UFOs are aliens.
One in a billion chance that aliens will come to Earth
Here is my calculation. I’m going to assume that the odds of aliens arriving are very low – I put them around one in a billion. Why? Because I think the odds of intelligent life per planet are really low, and if there was one, it would have spread throughout the universe. As for the specifics of the evidence, I admit that weird things do pop up, but none of it looks as special as aliens. I give the UFO a one in 500 million chance of being an alien after seeing the footage.
Image claiming to be UFO sightings