When will the trade sector finish recovering?

The recovery has already started: when will the trade sector finish recovering?

Randstad, number 1 in human resources in Spain and in the world, has produced, through its Randstad Research study center, a report on the forecasts for the recovery of entrepreneurs in our country. To do this, it surveyed about 3,200 companies in the sector across the country, in addition to monitoring the hiring situation through data provided by the State Public Employment Service (SEPE).

Randstad reveals that 74% of commerce businessmen are confident they will fully regain their activity by the end of this year, a figure three percentage points more optimistic than that of all companies in the country, of which 71% expect this date to be at levels prior to the onset of the crisis.

Recovery forecasts by sector

Source: Randstad

In general, traders are more optimistic than other entrepreneurs, with half being confident of a full recovery before the second half of 2021, compared to 47% of all industries. 82% believe the full recovery from the second quarter of next year, a percentage point higher than the economy as a whole.

According to Valentn Bote, director of Randstad Research, “despite the fact that the commerce sector suffered a serious setback in aspects such as the physical channel or sales, new technologies have become available as an alternative to the crisis. be a real lifeline for many companies in the sector ”.

Retail entrepreneurs suffer more from the crisis

The Randstad study detects differences within the industry. Retail entrepreneurs are suffering more from the crisis: 26% say they have had to stop or significantly reduce their activity, compared to 30% of all companies, while 38% say they have already recovered or not They noticed the crisis, a percentage which in the whole economy is 30%. In addition, 29% of retail companies had to go to ERTE, compared to 30% of the average, while 22% continue with employees teleworking, or 33% economy-wide.

For their part, four in ten wholesale entrepreneurs say they have not been affected or have already recovered, while 22% have had to stop their activity or reduce it considerably. 31% say they are continuing with teleworking measures and 26% are continuing with some ERTEs.

Randstad’s study also took into account the main concerns and measures that businessmen see as likely to help the commerce sector, with most admitting that their main concern is economic uncertainty about the future. from the country.

As far as support measures are concerned, most commercial enterprises opt for direct state aid, tax exemptions and greater labor flexibility.

March ends with the third highest volume of contracts in the last 12 months

Regarding employment data, Randstad points out that last year the number of contracts signed in commerce increased by 12.1%, as in March 158,521 contracts were signed in the sector, the third highest volume twelve months, only after July (181,513) and October (172,760). In addition, the figure for last March breaks with a negative trend of four consecutive months of decline.

The evolution of recruitment in the commerce sector has evolved over the past year in accordance with the restrictions. During the month of March 2020, the month in which the state of alert was declared, 141,462 commercial contracts were signed, a figure that fell below 100,000 in the following two months.

Evolution of recruitment in trade over the past year

Source: Randstad

Due to the easing of restrictions, the indicator rose again, registering the maximum of the series studied in July (181,513). After the August stop, this indicator rebounded to experience a negative trend since October which broke the good figure of last March.

The Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands recorded the only drops in hiring

The Randstad report finds big differences at the regional level. Compared to a year ago, Castilla y Len (30.4%), Cantabria (29.3%) and Asturias (24.3%) recorded the largest increases in hires in retail, all higher at 20%.

Variation in regional trade hiring over the past year

Source: Randstad

They are followed, with increases above the national average (12.1%), Extremadura (19.9%), Euskadi (-18.5%), Andalusia (18.2%), Aragn (17.8%) ), Region of Murcia (17.7%), Catalonia (17.2%), Castile-La Mancha (14.4%) and Galicia (12.8%).

La Rioja (9.9%), the Valencian Community (7.1%), Navarre (6.3%) and the Community of Madrid (3.4%) have already recorded below-average increases. recorded in the Canary Islands (-12.6%) and the Balearic Islands (-27.5%), largely due to greater exposure to tourism.

In absolute value, Andalusia (with 32,854 contracts), Catalonia (26,723 and the Community of Madrid (19,264), represent around 50% of companies in commerce.

At the provincial level, Valladolid (60.5%), Granada (47.9%), Palencia (44.3%) and Guadalajara (39.6%) recorded the highest growth in commercial hiring compared to it a year ago. In contrast, Tenerife (-16.6%), Las Palmas (-9.5%), Segovia (-7.5%) and Toledo (-6%) recorded the largest decreases.

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