Publication: Monday, May 3, 2021 7:30 AM
With just one day when the men and women of Madrid are called to the polls on May 4, the winner of these early regional elections seems to be more than ever in the air.
The main parties that appear in these elections in the capital are the PSOE with Ángel Gabilondo, the PP of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, Ciudadanos led by Edmundo Bal, Más Madrid with Mónica García, Unidos Podemos with Pablo Iglesias and Vox with Rocío Monasterio. All will try to obtain a sufficient number of seats in the Madrid Assembly to form a government. We will therefore know this Tuesday, May 4 if the left bloc wins or, on the contrary, if the right parties do.
Tie between left and right?
If the forecasts of the latest polls coincide, the outcome of these elections would be closer than ever. However, whoever wins these elections, no political party should be trusted because electoral victory does not guarantee governing in the Community of Madrid, as it has already happened in 2019 with the PSOE.
On May 4, the sum of the right-wing bloc (PP, Vox and Ciudadanos) is estimated at 54% of the vote, while in the left-wing parties (PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos) it would be slightly less than 45%. A very close result which predicts a practically double equality between the left and right parties.
According to the latest CEI polls, Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s Popular Party would win between 54 and 56 seats in the Madrid Assembly, a figure well above the 30 seats in the previous elections. The first barometer gave 39.2% of the vote to Díaz Ayuso against 36.7% he now predicts. However, the popular continue to need Vox’s support to revalidate Díaz Ayuso’s presidency.
For its part, Vox, the party led by Rocío Monasterio, would obtain between 11 and 13 seats, enough to reach this absolute majority with the PP set at 69 seats in Madrid. The Ciudadanos would not achieve representation by obtaining only 4.6% of the vote, at the threshold of 5% required to have seats.
In the left bloc, the CEI grants between 34 and 36 seats to the PSOE of Madrid, led by Ángel Gabilondo, obtaining a similar result in the last elections (37 seats). Plus Madrid would slightly exceed the seats won in the 2019 elections, dropping from 20 to 22 and 24 seats this time. The roster with Pablo Iglesias leading United We Can would add a minimum of 11 and a maximum of 13 seats.
Therefore, the sum of the left bloc would be between 67 and 73 seats, compared to that of the right, which would be 65 and 69 seats. However, everything still remains to be decided and the undecided ones could decide on this equality, since according to the CEI they total 30%.
More seats for Díaz Ayuso and fewer for the left bloc
This result would not be exactly the same as that reported in the latest survey by the laSexta barometer. In this new study, published on the last day when the law authorizes the publication of this type of election poll, the People’s Party would win 63 seats (only 6 of the absolute majority), more than the 54 and 56 seats allocated by the CEI and the 59 of the previous laSexta barometer.
With this, the popular could once again rule in the Community of Madrid with the party led by Rocío Monasterio, Vox, which would obtain 12 deputies, bringing together a total of 75 seats. This new poll gives Isabel Díaz Ayuso even more favoritism, doubling the seats obtained in 2019, surpassing the 54 and 56 seats in the CIS, and being the preferred option of 43.4% of Madrid residents.
In this study, the left wing would not be able to secure enough seats to match the two right wing formations, as predicted by the latest CIS poll. According to the Barometer, between the PSOE, United We Can and More Madrid would add 61 seats, insufficient compared to the 75 of PP and Vox. The Socialists would lower the number of seats in this forecast, from the 34 and 36 that the CIS barometer attributes to them to the 33 seats in this new study. This places the formation led by Ángel Gabilondo within 5 seats of those obtained in the last elections.
What all the polls seem to agree on is the Ciudadanos debacle, led by Edmundo Bal in Madrid. The Orange party could not reach the 5% of the vote necessary to add a seat, so it would be excluded from any representation.