Who will win according to the latest polls?

Publication: Thursday, March 18, 2021 08:40

The PP would be the most voted party in the Community of Madrid in the regional elections on May 4 with between 57 and 63 seats, doubling its 2019 result and depending on Vox to govern.

These are estimates from several polls that coincide in general lines: a sharp increase in votes in favor of the PP, which would depend only on Vox, whose rise is slowing, and a bump of citizens who may not even have representation in the Assembly of Madrid.

GAD3 barometer

The GAD3 barometer for ABC indicates that the PP would almost double the results of the 2019 regional elections, falling behind the PSOE: it would go from 22.2% of the vote and 30 seats to 39.6% and 57-59 deputies.

Those most affected by the electoral advance would be Ciudadanos, who would find themselves without representation in the Madrid Assembly, where it would take at least 5% to win seats. It would drop from 19.4% support and 26 seats two years ago to 3.1%.

Vox would improve his result in the regional elections from 8.9% to a vote estimate of 10.5%. Its 12 deputies thus obtained could become 14-16, which, with those of the PP, would constitute a comfortable absolute majority. The results of the PSOE vary little compared to 2019: from 27.3% of the votes and 37 seats it would rise to 27.8% and between 38 and 41 deputies.

For its part, Más Madrid would go from 14.6% and 20 seats to 11.1% and between 15 and 17 deputies, while Unidos Podemos barely changed, going from 5.6% to 5.1% and retaining its 7 deputies.

Metroscopy barometer

For its part, the survey conducted by Metroscopia for El Confidencial is even more optimistic for the expectations of the PP since it grants it between 59 and 63 seats, which is a step away from the absolute majority.

The second party will be the PSOE with between 41 and 43 seats, improving by only one point its result in 2019 despite the crash of Ciudadanos, which from 26 seats and nearly 20% of the vote in 2019 goes to only 4% of the votes , which leaves him without representation in the Assembly.

Another that could disappear from the Madrid chamber is United We Can, which Metroscopia said could not get more than 4.9% of the vote (up from 5.6% in 2019), which would drop from 7 seats to no. to have some. The fourth political force will therefore be Más Madrid, led by Íñigo Errejón in the previous elections (now in the Congress of Deputies) and who on this occasion would win 16 seats, four fewer than those she had in 2019.

Two sigma barometer

The survey conducted by Sigma Dos for El Mundo indicates that the PP would obtain 39.5% of the vote, could add between 55 and 56 seats and govern with the support of Vox, which would obtain between 12 and 13 deputies totaling the two, in the best of times, 69 representatives, the absolute majority of the Parliament of Madrid.

If the sum between PP and Vox could reach the absolute majority, that of the PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos would reach, also in the best case, only 62 representatives out of a total of 136, although the unknown would come from the hand of Ciudadanos, who would add between 6 and 7 parliamentarians, who in these moments of great political uncertainty in the orange formation could lean towards one or the other block.

The survey shows that the party led in the Community of Madrid by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, with 55 or 56 seats, would almost double the percentage of voters obtained in the last elections – from 22.2% in the 2019 elections to 39.5 ; followed by the PSOE which would reach 37 or 38 representatives with 27.5% of the vote -27.4% two years ago.

More Madrid would be the third political force but retrograde in the intention to vote and would obtain between 13 and 14 parliamentarians, 8.9% of the voters against 14.7% in the previous elections; While Vox, to whom the survey gives between 12 and 13 representatives with 9.4% of the vote, would be the fourth force in the Madrid Assembly.

Sociometric barometer

El Español’s sociometric poll also gives the victory to Isabel Díaz Ayuso with 36.2% of the vote and 51 seats, although she would continue to need Vox and Ciudadanos to govern.

The far-right party would get 17 MPs and 12.3% of the vote according to this poll, while the Orange party would get 7 and 5.5%.

For its part, the PSOE would remain with 30 seats and 21.8% of the votes, Más Madrid would get 11.3% of the votes and 16 seats and Podemos (11%) would increase to 15 seats.

Back to top button