Who would win the elections in the Community of Madrid according to the polls?

Updated: Tuesday, March 16, 2021 5:35 PM

Published on: 03/16.2021 17:34

The people of Madrid have an appointment with the ballot box on May 4, after Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid, broke her government with the citizens and called an election. The election announcement gave rise to the first polls which aged in a few hours.

This is due to the surprise announcement by Pablo Iglesias, who is stepping down as government vice-president to run as a candidate for United We Can. This candidacy could lead to a change in the voters’ voting intention.

Even so, the first polls that were carried out gave Isabel Díaz Ayuso as the winner of the elections. According to a Metroscopia poll for “El Confidencial”, the Popular Party would sweep the vote, dropping from the current 30 seats to between 59 and 63.

The PSOE would be relegated to a second place but winning seats: between 41 and 43. Later, More Madrid, with 16 deputies; Vox, with 13-14 seats.

The worst positions were predicted, according to this survey, for Ciudadanos, which would disappear from Madrid politics, and for United We Can, in a scenario where it reached a maximum of seven current seats, but in which it could also be out of juice, without representation in the Madrid Assembly. We would like to remind you that this poll was carried out before knowing that Pablo Iglesias would run as a candidate.

The GAD3 poll for “ABC,” released on March 13, also placed Ayuso among the favorites. The Popular Party, according to this poll, would grow at the expense of Ciudadanos, who would disappear from the Assembly in Madrid when they did not reach the necessary 5%.

The PP would accumulate 39.6% of the votes, which translates into 57-59 deputies; the PSOE 27.8% of the vote, with 29 to 41 seats; More than Madrid with between 15 and 17 deputies and 11.1% of the intention to vote; Vox, with 10.5% of voting intention; and United We Can scraping 5.1% of the voting intentions and obtaining 7 MPs.

National political panorama

On the other hand, in the national panorama, the PSOE would win the elections (with 31.3% in estimated votes) according to the March barometer of the CEI. It would be followed by the Popular Party (with an estimate of 17.9%), which drops by nine tenths, and which closely follows Vox (15%). Behind are Unidos Podemos (9.6%), Ciudadanos (9.5%), ERC, Más País, Junts Per Cat and the CUP.

But this data must be quarantined, since the fieldwork was carried out before the political earthquake that rocked Madrid and Murica a week ago and which could have caused big changes to the picture.

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